Africa’s trade deficit narrows on rising exports to China, but experts say it won’t last
China’s largest trading partner in Africa is South Africa. In the first half of the year, the value of its trade reached $27.5 billion, according to Chinese customs data.
During the period, imports from South Africa increased by 10.7 percent to US$17.29 billion year-on-year, but China’s exports to the African country fell by 18.6 percent to US$10.2 billion.
South Africa’s exports to China are mainly minerals and metals, but more recently China has started buying products such as soybeans, wine, rooibos tea, aloe vera gel and citrus fruits.
“China is willing to speed up the process so that South African lawyers are appreciated by the Chinese people as soon as possible,” Chinese Ambassador to South Africa Wu Peng wrote on X on Wednesday.
Regarding African exports to China, Mark Bohlund, senior credit research analyst at REDD Intelligence, said rising copper prices are one factor behind the increase.
“Increased production volumes also play a role,” he said.
“The depreciation of the Nigerian naira and, to a lesser extent, the South African rand and the Kenyan shilling, have likely contributed to reducing Chinese exports, given that these are the largest markets in sub-Saharan Africa.”
But, he added, African exports to China are likely to weaken somewhat in the second half of the year, mainly due to lower copper exports.
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“I expect Chinese export growth to Africa to remain relatively weak, as growth in Nigeria and South Africa is expected to remain weak in the near term,” Bohlund added.
For Africa to service its debt to China, he said it needed a trade surplus, not a trade deficit.
Unfortunately, he said, China has prioritized its own profits from Africa at every level of engagement – in its exports to Africa, in its loans to Africa and in requiring that those loans be made by Chinese companies to build infrastructure and supply goods.
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