Climate change and population growth could threaten global food security

Nairobi, Kenya – The combination of climate change and global population growth could threaten global food security. As the United Nations marks World Population Day, changes in agriculture, particularly in Africa, may be the only solution.

The world’s population is expected to increase over the next 60 years, from 8.2 billion today to 10.3 billion by the 2080s. Much of this growth will occur in Africa, where many countries still have high fertility rates.

According to the United Nations Population Fund, climate change is expected to exacerbate global inequalities and trigger national and international migration.

According to UN agencies, 1 billion of the 1.3 billion people living in Africa struggle to afford healthy diets and hunger worsened between 2019 and 2022.

Food needs are increasing, agricultural land is shrinking

Africa’s agricultural land is shrinking due to persistent drought, while population growth leaves less space for agriculture.

Chris Ojiewo, a senior scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, said African farmers need to produce a lot of food in small spaces to feed the growing population.

“We cannot even think of a humane… or ethical way to stop population growth, so let it grow but let us produce more in a small area,” Ojiewo said. “For example, where we can only produce one tonne of maize per hectare, why not work and that is what we are doing to improve that productivity from 1 tonne to 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 tonnes per hectare, looking at developing varieties but also production systems that enable us to produce in the intensified system but also to produce even in times of drought.”

Speaking at a conference in Mexico this week, Ann Vaughan, deputy administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, said scientific research and technology can help farmers cope with climate change and assist them in growing diverse crops.

“To make sure that we accelerate smart innovations so that farmers can have access to them, so that even in the face of a terrible drought, they’re still able to produce food for themselves and their families,” Vaughan said. “…that means making sure that we have the right science, the right seeds, the right private sector partners that are pulling and creating demand for those types of seeds, diversifying so that we’re not just growing corn, but also cowpeas and other crops that are more resilient to climate change, and smarter practices to intercrop and have less tilt.”

The initiative promotes sustainable practices

In 2010, the U.S. government launched Feed the Future, an initiative to address the causes of hunger and poverty in developing countries around the world.

The programme has improved African agricultural systems by promoting sustainable practices that take into account climate challenges. This has contributed to increased economic opportunities, employment and trade.

In some African countries, the dominance of maize as the main source of food worries experts. The crop depends on rain, and climate change is causing unpredictable rainfall.

African farmers need to change the timing and nature of their crops to produce enough food, Ojiewo said.

“Ensuring continuity of production and productivity, whether in season or out of season, does not necessarily mean 100 per cent reliance on rain-fed agriculture,” Mr Ojiewo said. “Diversification, as I have mentioned here, does not mean that the survival of the population depends on one crop. I know that many countries depend on maize as a cereal and ignore some of the other crops that fit into these systems.”

Due to increasing drought in several African countries, farmers are being encouraged to grow crops such as cassava, sorghum, pigeon peas and pearl millet, which are resistant to unpredictable and harsh conditions.