The destiny of the planet lies in African agriculture – why aren’t we investing in it?

The world’s population could reach 10 billion by 2050. Every year, 30 percent of the planet suffers from hunger, and this figure reaches 60 percent in Africa. Yet, with its vast natural resources, Africa has the potential not only to feed its growing population – expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 – but also to contribute significantly to global food security.

African agriculture also plays a crucial role in the fight against climate change. Better agricultural practices could sequester up to 23% of global carbon emissions by 2050, according to the IPCC. Increasing agricultural productivity on already cultivated land is the only way to end deforestation, which accounts for 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and is linked to 80 percent of cropland expansion.

Agriculture accounts for about 60 percent of jobs in sub-Saharan Africa. Massive investments in this sector could lift millions of people out of poverty. For example, increasing agricultural yields by 50 percent could generate up to $300 billion in additional income by 2030.

Agricultural development is particularly essential for political stability and the fight against forced migration. A strong agricultural sector can prevent resource conflicts, reduce displacement due to famine and climate change, and create economic opportunities at the local level, thereby limiting migration.

Investing in African agriculture means investing in 13 of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In a context of declining public development assistance (ODA) and tensions on public and private financial resources, it is crucial to maximize the impact of collective investments.

Global investment remains insufficient

Africa has a common political vision for African agriculture which must be supported. The recurring divisions in the discourses opposing climate and agricultural development, as well as the agendas of the countries of the North and those of the South, make any attempt at political alignment complex. Nowhere is there any trace of a shared vision supporting African priorities – which are clearly defined in the Malabo (2014), Nairobi (2024) declarations and in the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

As African countries – which account for less than 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions – suffer the most severe impacts of climate change, ODA requirements based on environmental criteria are seen in Africa as a violation offensive to sovereignty. Political leaders and international donors must keep this in mind. It is therefore essential to work towards aligning agendas, for example by agreeing on a common definition of sustainable agriculture and investment standards.

In the absence of a shared vision, investments remain insufficient and ineffective. The African agricultural sector suffers from a significant deficit in public, private and philanthropic investments. Under the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), African governments agreed to allocate at least 10 percent of national budgets to agriculture, but only a few have achieved this target.

Only five percent of total ODA goes to African agriculture. Philanthropic contributions are also insufficient, representing less than 1 percent of needed investments, and private investments are almost non-existent due to perceived risks. However, the FAO estimates that transforming African agri-food systems requires an investment of $200 billion per year.

Bring people together

A broad multi-stakeholder initiative, led by the Paris Peace Forum, is emerging to address these governance questions. Coalition of more than twenty major organizations from Africa and the rest of the world, representing a wide range of actors and activities (international institutions, development agencies, companies, research centers, philanthropic foundations, NGOs, universities), signatories of the Paris Peace Forum agreement. Call for Mobilization, propose a new South-North consensus centered on three main principles: Each country has an interest in the agricultural development of Africa. No country should have to choose between food security and environmental protection. Each country can choose its own path towards sustainable agricultural development.

To translate these words into action, the Paris Peace Forum and its coalition launched the ATLAS initiative on June 10^th, 2024, during an event organized in Morocco. ATLAS will be the high-level, multi-stakeholder platform for policy dialogue that the world needs. ATLAS will bring together African and international policymakers to overcome current obstacles and unlock the necessary investments, thereby enabling Africa to sustainably exploit its agricultural potential.

The destiny of the planet lies in the development of African agriculture. Directing investments towards African agriculture must be a priority, because it is in African agriculture that our common good lies.

• Pascal Lamy is vice-president of the Paris Peace Forum and former director general of the World Trade Organization; Ibrahim Mayaki is Special Envoy for Food Systems of the African Union (AU) and former Prime Minister of the Republic of Niger

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