Are people really going back to cow’s milk?

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Gone are the days of Have milk? posters in school canteens and a glass of milk served at every meal. Walk into any coffeeshop and you’ll likely hear more orders for oat, almond, soy or coconut milk than for cow’s milk. Plant milks have taken over the shelves of grocery stores, but recently, rumors have been raised about the triumphant return of cow’s milk.

From Texas to New York, stories indicated that cow’s milk may be trending upward. A 2022 Texas Monthly The article cites data from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) showing that 2020 was the first year in decades that national cow’s milk consumption remained stable and did not decline. Although in 2021, milk consumption has decreased again.

Then, in 2021, a Article from Grub Street reported on the return of dairy, citing a tweet from a barista who claimed: “Cow’s milk is back. Hot girls ditch the alternatives and get back to basics. Not that I ever enjoyed drinking a whole glass of any type of milk, but like the author, I found myself drawn to more dairy.

And then there are all the Tic Tac about oat milk reaction that joke about people trading oat milk for their former lover, cow’s milk.

So, is cow’s milk making a legitimate comeback? Let’s investigate.

The rise and fall of cow’s milk

In 1993, when the Have milk? After the campaign launched, fluid milk consumption was 24.5 gallons per capita, according to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Food Availability Data System.

Whether due to health issues, dairy intolerance, or changing habits and perceptions, cow’s milk consumption has declined in recent decades. In 2021, 15.6 gallons per capita were consumed.

“Differences in the eating and drinking habits of younger and older generations are contributing to the long-term downward trend in milk consumption,” said Fred Kuchler, an economist with the USDA Economic Research Service. .

Unlike many of my friends, I didn’t grow up in a dairy household. I would never think to pour myself a glass of dairy or plant-based milk. But the marketing around milk as an essential part of our diet is so ingrained in my brain that whenever my joints hurt, I blame my lack of milk as a child. To date, the USDA Dietary Guidelines recommend three cups of dairy products daily for adults.

Meanwhile, the popularity of plant-based milks has exploded, with options ranging from soy, almond and oat to macadamia and pistachio. In 2022, sales of plant-based milk increased by 8.5 percent and reached $2.8 billion, according to the Plant-Based Food Association. And ERS research shows that the growth of plant-based milk has contributed to some extent to the decline in cow’s milk sales.

“Plant-based milk alternatives have been shown to compete with cow’s milk,” Kuchler said. “However, because sales of these products are relatively low, their sales can only explain a small part of the overall cow’s milk trends.” This means that people buying plant-based milk aren’t necessarily the only factor impacting cow’s milk sales.

Although we drink less cow’s milk on average, Kuchler notes that we also get more of it in dairy products like yogurt and cheese. Per capita consumption of dairy products has increased in recent years. So the decline in milk consumption may not be so much because people are turning their backs on dairy altogether; it’s about how we consume it.

There may not yet be sufficient evidence to demonstrate an increase in cow’s milk consumption. But slowly it might become popular again, but not as the only option. It’s part of all the new alternative milks like oat and almond, which are now just as common. It might take just one cappuccino at a time.

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