Norwegian Seafood Council: Falling demand for seafood in the UK unlikely to ease

The United Kingdom is one of Norway’s main seafood export markets, but it is also a country that has gradually buy and consume less fishafter purchasing less volume of almost all species last year, according to Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) analyst Eivind Braekkan.

Speaking at the Norway-UK Seafood Summit 2024 in London, England, Braekkan said the only fish import whose volume sent to the UK increased last year was pangasius. This drop in demand is a major concern for Norwegian exporters, who supply around 20 percent of Britain’s seafood imports each year, Braekkan said.

Since January 2021, UK retail food prices have increased by 29 per cent, meat prices by 27 per cent and seafood prices by 21 per cent. Salmon prices increased by 25 percent, cod prices by 19 percent and haddock prices by 18 percent.

However, the rise in prices caused by inflation is not solely responsible for the drop in consumption, according to Braekkan. The downward trend in demand for seafood is also not unique to the UK.

“The drop in consumption is not linked to seafood prices; it’s about everything increasing,” Braekkan said. “(Consumers) are buying less seafood and all sorts of things, so the decline in seafood consumption is not a problem or challenge exclusive to seafood in the UK”

The problem, according to Braekkan, will be exacerbated by global supply shortages in 2024. Braekkan said that while the supply of farmed salmon will remain stable in 2024, in capture fisheries the volume of Atlantic cod is expected to fall by 17 percent to around 796,000 metric tons (TM ). This includes 80,000 tonnes less cod from Norway due to reduced quotas. Likewise, the supply of haddock will decrease by around 14 percent to 264,000 tonnes.

For some species from Norway, there are expected to be global supply gaps to fill this year, Braekkan said. Sanctions against Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine have led the United States to ban Russian seafood, including seafood of Russian origin processed in third countries like China, there will therefore be a big gap in the US cod market which can be filled by cod from Norway, Iceland and other countries, while Russian exporters will have to find new markets. Historically, approximately 90,000 tons of Russian cod have been imported by the United States each year, primarily through China.

Even though the UK has not yet imposed sanctions on Russian cod from third countries, Braekkan questions whether British consumers will continue to buy whitefish of Russian origin due to Russia’s unpopularity among the population of the country.

As for whether sluggish consumer trends will continue this year, he said there is a “slightly more positive” outlook for the UK market in 2024, and this could help increase demand for seafood.

“This is also the case for the rest of the world,” he added. “For importers, this means more competition to get your seafood products, and with lower quotas for whitefish, there will be more pressure on supply chains. »

Longer term, with the world’s population on track to reach 9.7 billion people by 2050 and food demand expected to increase by 70 percent over the same period, Braekken predicted a.. .

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